Who let the doges out
4 min read

Who let the doges out

Cryptic ball: be reasonably safe.

As anticipated yesterday, it was unlikely bitcoin would continue marching straight up after several days in the green. But that's fine, as this pause is allowing alts to breathe. Indeed, SHIBA is leading the pack and is about to hit a new all-time high (remember we first talked about this coin in April, when it was 50x cheaper than it is now?). But note that this is a very volatile, entirely speculative bet, which also crashed 25% earlier today, in just a couple of hours.

To be fair, more solid alts are also pumping +10%, like Fantom's FTM, Arweave's AR, and Polka's DOT. If you don't know them, I definitely encourage you to research these projects a bit and try to find the common theme two of them share (hint: I've been constantly writing about it here). It's crazy how fast things happen in this industry and how much one needs to read to just keep up, right? That's why it's so important to separate signal from noise.

Back to SHIBA, many have always disregarded this Dogecoin replica as a noisy fad. But it's not even weird that such an unoriginal meme token is the top earner of the week, after the Musical Shibairs game imploded the market last May. Why is that? Because after being added to Coinbase a couple of weeks ago, and after months of accumulation, SHIBA became the only chance for normies around the world to buy a "cheap" coin, worth thousandths of a cent. And few were selling it!

Still, if you're betting the crowd can continue to pump the meme, I urge you to look at the project's market cap: it is now the 17th largest coin. It's true that people can go wild when it breaks its previous ATH, but be mindful that it's already valued at 1/3 of DOGE. While DOGE itself can do a 4x from here, from $0.25 to the meme target of $1, consider that SHIBA's rise is likely limited by its mother meme.

And remember that despite burning 45% of the total supply, Vitalik Buterin (who once held 50% of its total supply) still donated 5% to charities that may not have sold all of it. Moreover, this is a highly centralised project, with the top holder that is not an exchange or a staking address accounting for 7% of total supply - meaning they can crash price anytime in a DEX, which would mean centralised exchange bots would quickly follow suit. As always, manage your risk!

Chart art: be reasonably fearful.

We may see some consolidation around $55k over the weekend. However, if US equities continue rising, maybe crypto bulls will remain inspired. I'll update you tomorrow.

Three things: stay reasonably sceptical.

Tweet tip: stay reasonably optimistic.

75% from the Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg. With the highest odds for Galaxy Digital, right at the beginning of November. Get ready for the end of the month!
A poll by the head of derivatives at Genesis Global Trading puts the probability of an ETF approval this October lower. Remember that if an ETF is approved earlier than expected, the market may continue pumping. If it's approved right at the peak of euphoria, then that moment will likely mark the top.

Meme moment: stay reasonably long.

What a great meme, found via @Crypto_Chase. Remember that crypto pumps thrive on FOMO, which means traditional trading indicators can remain overextended for a long time. For example, what matters is not high funding, but a very significant drop in funding.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.