Cryptic ball: be reasonably safe.
As anticipated yesterday, it was unlikely bitcoin would continue marching straight up after several days in the green. But that's fine, as this pause is allowing alts to breathe. Indeed, SHIBA is leading the pack and is about to hit a new all-time high (remember we first talked about this coin in April, when it was 50x cheaper than it is now?). But note that this is a very volatile, entirely speculative bet, which also crashed 25% earlier today, in just a couple of hours.
To be fair, more solid alts are also pumping +10%, like Fantom's FTM, Arweave's AR, and Polka's DOT. If you don't know them, I definitely encourage you to research these projects a bit and try to find the common theme two of them share (hint: I've been constantly writing about it here). It's crazy how fast things happen in this industry and how much one needs to read to just keep up, right? That's why it's so important to separate signal from noise.
Back to SHIBA, many have always disregarded this Dogecoin replica as a noisy fad. But it's not even weird that such an unoriginal meme token is the top earner of the week, after the Musical Shibairs game imploded the market last May. Why is that? Because after being added to Coinbase a couple of weeks ago, and after months of accumulation, SHIBA became the only chance for normies around the world to buy a "cheap" coin, worth thousandths of a cent. And few were selling it!
Still, if you're betting the crowd can continue to pump the meme, I urge you to look at the project's market cap: it is now the 17th largest coin. It's true that people can go wild when it breaks its previous ATH, but be mindful that it's already valued at 1/3 of DOGE. While DOGE itself can do a 4x from here, from $0.25 to the meme target of $1, consider that SHIBA's rise is likely limited by its mother meme.
And remember that despite burning 45% of the total supply, Vitalik Buterin (who once held 50% of its total supply) still donated 5% to charities that may not have sold all of it. Moreover, this is a highly centralised project, with the top holder that is not an exchange or a staking address accounting for 7% of total supply - meaning they can crash price anytime in a DEX, which would mean centralised exchange bots would quickly follow suit. As always, manage your risk!
Chart art: be reasonably fearful.
Three things: stay reasonably sceptical.
- Tether FUD is back, with Bloomberg putting out a reasonably informative piece summarising the debacle. Good to keep up with this potential black swan.
- The multi-chain future is here, with Paul Veradittakit from Pantera Capital explaining how some projects allow dApps to interact with different chains.
- a16z is getting serious about regulation, having shared three legislation proposals with the US Congress. A bit US-specific, but interesting.