3 min read


Cryptic ball: got stomped?

What did I tell you? The news of the Merge were sold and ether fell nearly 10%! Bitcoin is only down 2.5% but this is not a sign of resilience, just of lack of interest in speculation until global macro conditions improve. What now?

  • In the long-term, I'm very bullish on ether and on Ethereum's new standard for yield-generating opportunities in the crypto world. Remember that the Merge has turned this decentralised computer into a Proof-of-Stake enabled network.
  • And in such a network the validators, who have to lock their ether away - i.e. stake - are rewarded with block subsidies from the network's transactions in what amounts to natural cash-flows, akin to bond's interest payments.
  • This will likely make ether a reasonable institutional investment. As we've seen in this one, everyone is dying for juicy passive investment returns, and most have now understood that the likes of Terra's 20% APY are not sustainable.
  • Still, Coinshares recently estimated Ethereum's yields may fluctuate between 4% to 12%. Yes, right now inflation makes such numbers less interesting, but once price rises calm down those are fairly sexy returns!
  • Until then, we're still stuck sideways within the macro constraints. Next Thursday's FOMC meeting will surely be key as there's no meeting in October and the latest inflation data came in hotter than expected.
  • Even the World Bank is now sounding the alarm on the risk of a global recession in 2023, as central banks tighten monetary policy to reduce demand in order to try to curb inflation. In other words, they create crises to save us...

Let's see how anxious traders react over the weekend to speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates more aggressively, with a dramatic 100bps move. If the market is caught with the pants down, then all hell will break loose!

Chart art: got time?

It will take some months for ETH issued to drop significantly.

Three things: got toasted.

Tweet tip: got FOMO?

I agree, but only in a couple of years. Nothing will be bid now as the virtue signallers are likely out of cash.

Meme moment: got conned?

The power of the Panda.

FV Bank: meet us in New York.

Hit me up for a chat!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.