Bitcat and mouse
4 min read

Bitcat and mouse

Cryptic ball: btc up, alts down.

Another day, another bitcoin pump. What did I tell you about Q4 at the end of September, when many were crying for $30k again? That bulls were around the block! Now I must remind you about another important relationship first highlighted in this newsletter in April: alts tend to follow ether and ether crashes when bitcoin rises (in relative terms, ETHBTC is down ~4% today).

That relationship will be particularly evident once bitcoin crosses $65k, its previous ATH. Something which can happen the same day the $60k resistance is clearly broken. However, that will be a tough level to beat, because everyone knows that there's only thin air above it. So, even if things look strong right now, it may be the case a new ATH won't be seen right this week. Still, after that level is cleared we'll only see bitcoin stop (hopefully just for a pause) around $100k!

In other words, during those weeks - maybe a full month - where bitcoin is in price discovery mode, you should be careful about speculative alt plays. Even though some alts will continue to pump as bitcoin rises, overall the dominance of the original cryptoasset is always felt. And remember alts will all pump right after BTC starts consolidating after printing its first lower high - just like what happened last April 18th. And that will surely coincide with the ETF listing, just as 2017's top aligned with the CME futures launch and March's ATH with Coinbase's IPO.

Chart art: long cats, short mice.

I've drawn these lines last May, it's amazing how clearly bitcoin has been following them.

Visual block: the king is waking up.

While I don't think BTC will produce the same post-halving returns this cycle, I'm expecting a 12x to 24x multiple, which puts bitcoin's top somewhere around $100k to $200k.

Three things: a game of Tom & Jerry.

Tweet tip: crypto pumps for a living, not for a reason.

On April 7th, I've wrote that the meme token mania would see a massive crash soon, with "one last pump in the end of the year". We're getting that pump, but I also agree with Qiao that it's all because of narrative and that other factors can impact the current sentiment.

Meme moment: natural gas vs. bitcoin.

Funny meme, but remember that, in the cryptosphere, supply squeezes only happen when bullish traders are willing to hodl in anticipation of higher prices ahead. However, in the natural gas market we're seeing a true supply squeeze that is making DOGE and SHIBA look weak.

B21 TV: stay tuned (and long).

Check my interview with Anil Lulla from Delphi Digital, a thesis-driven cryptoasset fund.

Get started: download the B21 Crypto app!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.