Cryptic ball: another recap.
What a week! Monday we saw bitcoin falling below $40k for the first time since last September, when it experienced the dip that enticed bears to long the orange coin until $69k in just a month and a half. But while in September it was time to be uber bullish (I even compared it to September 2017), now the market is not so appealing - as I've explained last Thursday and Friday.
But it's not only the US Federal Reserve and global markets and inflation and interest rates. The crypto fear and greed index shows extreme fear, which should suggest this is a good time to buy. But when I talk to fellow investors and market participants I'm sensing gluttony and FOMO - which makes me feel like we haven't seen the bottom of this dip. On the one hand, that is good as it is this bullish appetite that's fueling the relief rally I talked about Monday and Tuesday.
On the other hand, it feels like big players are distributing and smaller whales are either complacent or in the initial stages of denial regarding the difficulty of printing higher highs over the next months. However, remember I don't (yet) believe the bull market has ended - just that the next months won't be as easy as UpOnly periods. You'll have to be prepared for wilder swings, ready to take profits, and even flip short if things continue changing faster than anticipated.
Meanwhile, for the weekend ahead it's interesting to see how BTC printed a nice local bottom at $41.5k. If it manages to pump above $45.5k you can expect alts to continue rallying. Conversely, if it approaches $41.5k again, diminishing the chances that it was a higher low after the test of $39k this Monday, then traders will start dumping their alts, and the leading project may even fall again - especially with US equities not looking very hot this Friday!
Chart art: another reminder.
Three things: another future.
- Soona Amhaz writes about "raising capital as a pseudonymous founder".
- Azeem Azhar talks about "crypto and the future of money".
- Shanav Mehta and Saurabh Sharma from Jump Crypto discuss "where the multi-billion dollar crypto derivatives market is headed next".