Cryptic ball: how likely?
Yesterday's daily close was indeed key and my pessimism wasn't warranted. Guess I was indeed mentally capitulating, right? Glad that was the case, but sad to see bulls fell short of the key $42k level I highlighted. Not bad, but are we bullish now?
- To be fair, crypto bulls were again inspired by an uplift in US equities, with the major indexes up roughly 2.5% since yesterday's daily open in the North American market - a critical period that I follow a lot, in addition to the UTC daily open and close that's still relevant for bitcoin and therefore also to alts.
- In brief, this optimism is due to the latest series of US corporate earnings, which have been better than expected (except for Netflix, which just crashed 23% as if it was your favourite shitcoin). Funny how the traditional concept of profit can influence all markets, but even more so one as ethereal as crypto.
- Interestingly, JP Morgan's top strategist - who last week said stock investors should take some profits - is arguing "a near term rally is likely" as traders are now "too bearish" and inflation is calming down. Still, note that he may be referring more to value stocks, instead of high-growth ones, like tech.
- All-in-all, I tend to agree that such a rally is possible and so my bias will flip bullish unless we lose $40k again. Moreover, yesterday's crypto price action hints at a bottom, which should allow bulls to continue treading higher.
But we must continue watching out for the Fed and for tech stocks before calling this a super cycle. Especially because all this could be part of a larger dead cat bounce. If fears of a recession loom again or if the Fed doesn't play the Midterms game nicely enough, markets will suffer and crypto will get dragged too!
Chart art: how solid?
Three things: how stable?
- Mat Levine funnily explains how "an algorithmic stablecoin works".
- Croissant historically explains what the DeFi Summer was all about and what the next crypto summer could be like.
- Last but not the least, check out my panel in Bitcoin Miami where I discussed the intersection of crypto and banking with Caitlin Long and more!