Good Friday
4 min read

Good Friday

Cryptic ball: when peak?

For now, my gut was right, with $39.5k holding overnight. But Easter is just starting and even if I don't think the weekend will be volatile, such a muted trading period in most Western countries would allow bears to strike again. Will they?

  • As explained over the week, we experienced a dead cat bounce. But there's a nice chance that bulls defend the current level as that would still allow bitcoin to keep its uptrend and a bullish market structure with a higher low.
  • If bulls win, $52k would be the next stop this spring. But if bears recover, then we will first test $36k and below that it's mostly thin air until $30k - which was the major support level created in the fallout from last year's June to July.
  • Overall, with the tax season meme ending Monday and with the narrative that institutions are accumulating bitcoin once again, I continue to believe spring can continue as per the scenario above. But I'm aware this is my bullish bias.
  • Remember I'm very mindful of the bear market of 2018, where many also hoped the market would turn and we would see $20k again, only to see the market slowly dying for years until we reached $3k, with ETH losing 95%.
  • I also understand this market is different and institutional adoption changes the game a bit. But the interconnectedness of DeFi may provide the conditions for a perfect storm in case a major protocol - or even a stablecoin - fails.

All-in-all, this is a time to trade and not to hodl. And to be focused on the policy announcements from the world's major central banks. They have an incentive to keep the machine printing until the world crashes. And while many are touting the doom horn, I believe there's some leeway for more MMT manipulation as reports that inflation is peaking become more common. Time to relax at last?

Chart art: when higher high?

This could be a lower low, but if we fall further below the scenario will be invalidated.

Three things: when moon?

Tweet tip: when DAO?

Not even on Discord.

Meme moment: when chocolate?


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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.