A hard path to a soft landing
3 min read

A hard path to a soft landing

Cryptic ball: ate too much chocolate?

As expected, Easter was relaxed and it seemed bulls were preparing to pump it this Monday. But maybe bears were less hungover and decided to strike again, creating a new lower low around $38.5k over the past couple of hours. What's next?

  • With this backdrop, today's close will be key. I'm a bit pessimistic now as it doesn't look like $39k will hold but maybe this is just me mentally capitulating.
  • If we fall below $39k again, then the next key level to watch is $37k. Conversely, if bulls take advantage of the generalised negative sentiment to trap late shorts, the next level to watch for bulls is the often remarked $42k.
  • US equities are also falling, and it looks like the week will be full of red on that front. So, all-in-all, my bias this week is short or at most neutral, in case we see some spectacular upside before the daily close tonight.

After all, note Goldman is placing some decent 35% odds in a US recession in the next couple of years, as historically the Fed has failed to tame inflation without damaging the economy. Can cryptoassets decouple before that?

Chart art: betted much on this support?

It doesn't look like bulls are fighting hard to keep this bullish market structure.

Three things: crypto is dead much?

Tweet tip: long live crypto much?

Haters gonna hate. Regulation is key and necessary and can happen without centralisation.

Meme moment: bad memories much?

Remember sideways can be more painful than a cold-blooded bear market.

FV Bank: meet us at Crypto Bahamas.

Come and meet our founders, Miles Paschini & Nitin Agarwal, at this exclusive gathering of investors & builders in the blockchain, digital assets and web3 space - hosted by FTX and SALT.

Get started: learn more about FV Bank.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.