They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks
Cryptic ball: memes are for pumping.
Zooming out, the crypto market is roughly 10% down since last Wednesday, with bitcoin down 12% and ether "just" 8% - which shows the curious resilience of alts in this dip. But many traders are panicking, as their positions keep getting cut in this chop. What to do? Zooming further out - to that bitcoin chart I've drawn last May - and we see that the next candidate for a bounce is $57k, so let's see what kind of interest the market sees at that important level.
After that, $51k is the support bulls must defend if we want this run to the moon to continue. But, until $57k is broken we are just ranging and rinsing leverage out of the system (funding rates are turning negative at last and this is exactly what we need). Still, as explained yesterday, every day SHIBA comes closer to overcoming DOGE in market cap the more likely it is that we'll face a sudden piece of news that throws the market in a tantrum, potentially anticipating the Halloween party.
Why is that? Because even in crypto's wild west, it's quite shocking to see a one-year-old meme coin, without any utility and a very concentrated supply, at a $26 billion market cap. That's half of Solana's. And larger than Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest financial institution. And we're talking circulating supply market cap here, because total supply is irrelevant - that's why CoinDesk and some sites are already reporting SHIBA overcame DOGE today. Although to be fair, CoinDesk did a good job of investigating the pump and it seems whale wallets have bought up to $160 million in the past week!
Now, the question is when and how such smart money will dump their bags. Likely, funding rates will give the sell sign, as those players will surely short SHIBA hard. Remember young projects are easy to manipulate as they have few holders - especially SHIBA, whose holders tend to have small amounts and, therefore, have trouble in influencing the order books. Let's just hope that sell-off triggers a flight to quality instead of panic. After all, the perspective of today's chart shows the ascend remains healthy and Uptober must go on - just not to the kennel.
Chart art: orange coin is for reference.
Three things: exploits are for exploiting.
- a16z proposed a legal framework for DAOs.
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- Andrew Thurman wonders whether code is law #flashloans.