Cryptic ball: the dawn of a new alt season leg.
The crypto market has been mostly ranging today, as bitcoin tested the key level of $61.8k I've talked about yesterday. So far, we haven't had the convincing bounce we needed, with the exception of LUNA (the only major token to bounce 7% over the past hours), but this doesn't necessarily speak victory for the bears.
On the one hand, FTM and MATIC have been pumping +10% today. And SHIBA, the doge emulator we extensively covered in early April and May, is up 30%. With BTC and ETH profits shifting to alternative Layer-1 plays, it's natural that the leading projects move sideways. What's key is that all this speculation doesn't remind the crypto gods to tickle the bears, e.g. what happened with the donation of SHIBA by Vitalik Buterin last May, explained here. That's because meme tokens and low cap utility coins in various other ecosystems are also pumping hard.
And while I think we're still far from the top, it's possible we get a small retrace soon, eventually as soon as the first week of November. All this would be aligned with the Uptober monthly close and expected euphoria around October 31st's anniversary of the Bitcoin whitepaper publication by Satoshi Nakamoto. Such a pullback, if it happens, would provide another leverage flush to tamper the greed - before bulls resume this alt season leg - provided the S&P 500 continues printing new all-time highs every week, as explained in today's chart art.
On the other hand, note funding rates remain pretty reasonable for the stage of the bull cycle we're currently in. Moreover, if you need further comfort (or hopium) zoom out all the way back to last December. You will see that the first time we tested $20k since 2017 we also had a very similar reaction to what's happening now. And, to be fair, BTC just only overcame the ATH by 3%. That's not much. So this could be an interesting fractal that would lead us up to the Moonvember we all need to take our portfolios to the next level. Onwards and upwards!
Chart art: the dawn of a global crash.
Three things: the dawn of fair competition.
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