Oct 26, 2021 4 min read

The Dawn of Everything

Cryptic ball: the dawn of a new alt season leg.

The crypto market has been mostly ranging today, as bitcoin tested the key level of $61.8k I've talked about yesterday. So far, we haven't had the convincing bounce we needed, with the exception of LUNA (the only major token to bounce 7% over the past hours), but this doesn't necessarily speak victory for the bears.

On the one hand, FTM and MATIC have been pumping +10% today. And SHIBA, the doge emulator we extensively covered in early April and May, is up 30%. With BTC and ETH profits shifting to alternative Layer-1 plays, it's natural that the leading projects move sideways. What's key is that all this speculation doesn't remind the crypto gods to tickle the bears, e.g. what happened with the donation of SHIBA by Vitalik Buterin last May, explained here. That's because meme tokens and low cap utility coins in various other ecosystems are also pumping hard.

And while I think we're still far from the top, it's possible we get a small retrace soon, eventually as soon as the first week of November. All this would be aligned with the Uptober monthly close and expected euphoria around October 31st's anniversary of the Bitcoin whitepaper publication by Satoshi Nakamoto. Such a pullback, if it happens, would provide another leverage flush to tamper the greed - before bulls resume this alt season leg - provided the S&P 500 continues printing new all-time highs every week, as explained in today's chart art.

On the other hand, note funding rates remain pretty reasonable for the stage of the bull cycle we're currently in. Moreover, if you need further comfort (or hopium) zoom out all the way back to last December. You will see that the first time we tested $20k since 2017 we also had a very similar reaction to what's happening now. And, to be fair, BTC just only overcame the ATH by 3%. That's not much. So this could be an interesting fractal that would lead us up to the Moonvember we all need to take our portfolios to the next level. Onwards and upwards!

Chart art: the dawn of a global crash.

QCP Capital's team recently highlighted (see yesterday's post) how BTC pumps are contingent on increases in global money supply, also known as quantitative easing. That's why I've been writing that aggressive tightening by the US Fed will impact the bull cycle.

Three things: the dawn of fair competition.

John St. Capital explains chaordic organisations and DAOs.
Punk6529 storms around the eternal question: what is an NFT?
JumpCrypto reflects upon Solana's September 14th outage.

Tweet tip: the dawn of NFTs.

*They do feel like it. Just don't waste your money in fees, right?*

Meme moment: the dawn of DAOs.

*Paid groups or free associations, but they are just associations aided by digital tools.*

B21 TV: latest episode is out!

*Check the latest episode of The Desi Crypto Show, where Dheeraj Shah interviews Daniel Hwang on all things metaverse and more, from consensus mechanisms to decentralisation.*

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.