Earlier than expected
3 min read

Earlier than expected

Cryptic ball: no need to wait for July.

Well, I wasn't entirely wrong this Friday. The weekend wasn't smooth and $20k proved to be flimsy support, even if bears didn't have enough fuel for a total meltdown. What should you do now that BTC is hovering around $19k?

  • As explained yesterday, things could get worse before they got better and I'm now expecting a test of $13k to $14k, while ether can easily test $600 in case the consequences of the recent liquidations further harm the market.
  • The only difference from yesterday is that while then I agreed with Arthur Hayes' take that such a crash would only happen in the first weekend of July, now it's more likely we test that level earlier - maybe even this week.
  • We'll know soon, as this year, during weekends, bitcoin often acted as a bellwether for the week ahead of US equities. However, in this case, I'm more inclined to think we're starting to see the beginning of a new trend.
  • As all markets crash, different capitulation timings may break the recent correlations between asset classes. We're already seeing that among bitcoin and many alts, as BTC has been falling more than alts - against all expectations.
  • Conversely, the downfall of Terra, Celsius, and 3AC has clearly wreaked havoc in the crypto market, accelerating its crash. Stocks are also doomed, but they can continue to slowly bleed while crypto finally consolidates a bottom.

In summary, we haven't bottomed unless BTC recovers $20k before the weekly close. And if that doesn't happen, it's better if we crash rapidly as that would flush out of the market's excesses - allowing everyone else to go back to building!

Chart art: no need to be sad.

Angelo knows.

Three things: no need to be so private.

Tweet tip: no need to be so critical.

True, and so transparent.

Meme moment: no need to miss a discount.

If you liked ETH at nearly $5k you should like it even more now!

FV Bank: back from Consensus.

I just came back from Consensus 2022 and it was a great experience!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.