Saylor didn't get away
4 min read

Saylor didn't get away

B21 Crypto. We help you stomach cryptoassets.

Cryptic ball: did you like last Sunday's scenarios?

As anticipated in the high probability scenario explained last Friday, the bullish market structure of the past couple of weeks was indeed broken in a spectacular bull trap and bitcoin has tested $31.7k this morning. To be fair, the orange coin is down only 10% since the last newsletter went out. But Sunday morning it started dumping aggressively, finding strong support at $33k. This move was quickly retraced and by Sunday night BTC had fully recovered. But this was another false signal to entice the permanent bulls, as this morning the market crashed again.

Mainstream media is crediting this move on the continued crackdown on miners by the Chinese government as the culprit. But the more accurate explanation is still the same as the one shared here last week: a strong US dollar following last week's FOMC meeting, where Jerome Powell, chair of the US Fed, hinted at a less hawkish monetary policy in the years ahead - provided that the economy keeps recovering at a healthy pace. So, what can you expect this week?

Chart art: Saylor failed to cause a proper bounce.

This is the BTCUSD order book overlay with price on Binance, UTC+1 time. It shows the bull trap at $36k which didn't have any follow through (buyers got exhausted). Then, this morning BTC experienced a massive test of support at $33k which failed and led to new lows.

Market musings: it's all about the Fed now.

To begin, (physical) gold has stopped falling but it hasn't bounced yet. And just five hours ago Michael Saylor, Microstrategy's CEO, has finally announced the analytics company has bough an additional $500 million in bitcoin at an average price of $37.6k! If this was still a bull market, all the desks knowing this would have prompted large investors to buy everything they could. But these summer doldrums are so aggressive that not even the strongest spot buyer had a chance.

For now, everything is hinging on a new Congress testimony by the Fed's chair happening tomorrow at 2pm Washington time. This is because the House of the Representatives convened several policymakers following the confusing outcome of last week's FOMC announcement, which was interpreted as dovish. If Powell clarifies the Fed will continue boosting the economy, we might get some relief. Otherwise, it's likely that we'll break the $30k support and quickly drop to $20k while ether and alts fall like if there's no tomorrow. So plan ahead and watch out!

Visual block: even whales are afraid.

CryptoQuant's data shows whales sending money to exchanges now. They will likely sell if bitcoin fails to hold $30k.

Three things: ignore the markets and just learn away.

  • Vitalik Buterin has shared a new post (about Verkle trees) and, as usual, it provides an interesting glimpse at the technicals behind blockchains.
  • Deribit Insights has shared a new post (about market structure) and, as usual, it provides an excellent glimpse at how derivatives markets work!
  • Bitcoin Magazine has shared a new post (about the history of cryptography) and, as usual, it provides a compelling overview of the evolution of this space.

Tweet tip: true, you should try it!

Just focus on the fundamentals.

Meme moment: this could be said of bears right now.

Follow @PepeXBT for great memes and crypto context!

The Desi Crypto Show: learn more about Near Protocol.

Curious about environmentally-friendly blockchains? Check our latest interview!

New news: USDC now available on our app.

Get started: download the B21 Crypto app!

Subscribe to our newsletter
Follow us on Twitter @b21official
Follow us on Twitter
Join our Telegram group
Find us on Instagram
Watch us on Youtube
Legal Notice
Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.