The Surge
4 min read

The Surge

Cryptic ball: surge, verge, purge.

As anticipated over the weekend, crypto is experiencing a small dip, with BTC and ETH both losing roughly 8% since Friday. Ether still attempted a pump last night, but it clearly failed, as the current market uncertainty doesn't favour the bulls.

  • What's more is the curious fact that ether volumes have been leading, a rare occurrence. As you can see in today's chart, the Jarvis Labs crew has been analysing the Merge pump and isn't optimistic on how sustainable it is.
  • To be fair, this analysis doesn't come from Ben, someone whose posts I keep sharing and agree with, but from an intern. I don't agree with his conclusion, but it's important to be confronted with conflicting views to check our bias.
  • Well, in this case, the Jarvis Janitor highlights that when ETH volumes overcome bitcoin's we typically see an exhausted trend for ETH. He goes further, though, suggesting this sometimes also coincides with a BTC dump.
  • Overall, it's fair to say the ETH pump needs to rest after gaining 50% in one week, especially with the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, as explained last week. I even said we were going to move sideways with some dips on the cards.
  • But I'm still confident that, if the Fed doesn't ruin the party on Wednesday's press conference, the rest of the summer will be rather peaceful, with some mild appreciation opportunities across the board. Let's hope I'm right!
  • Lastly, note that equities are also likely to underperform this week, with major tech earnings scheduled. Maybe Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft can impress, but if not and stonks crash, watch out for BTC which must hold $21.8k!

In the meantime, I do agree we should stay calm as there's no need to FOMO yet. Naturally, and by definition, there's never the need to FOMO once a trend shifts, but we must remember that price action is only starting to get interesting now.

Chart art: and then splurge.

Check today's cryptic ball for an explanation of this chart, noting that the red dots indicate moments when ether volumes overcome bitcoin, at least on perpetual futures.
Lastly, see how bitcoin is back testing the range that defined mid June to July trading. Failing to hold this breakout could mean bears are back in control. When that happened in the beginning of June, we lost May's range and dropped from $30k to $20k. Fine, 3AC blew up back then and there's not much else left to trap right now. But it's still an eerie picture.

Three things: sweat, rekt, yet.

Tweet tip: and then bet more.

Oh, the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator!

Meme moment: tick, tock, tick.

The flippening will happen once Vitalik abandons the protocol like Satoshi did.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.