Cryptic ball: FOMC is back.
The weekend is here and the crypto market is moving in interesting ways. While ether reached a new local high this Friday, bitcoin is potentially forming a bullish pennant - which will remain valid as long as $22.5k is defended. What's next?
- Like bitcoin, the major stock indexes had a slight pullback at this end of the week, but still closed with a nice gain since Monday. Social media stocks were the noteworthy exception, as Snapchat's 39% crash inspired a web2 carnage.
- Now, the ETH trade has been all the rage, with this scaling narrative providing some additional relief on top of the broad market bounce. But, like before, the real hype around the "Merge" can often disappoint after quick gains like these.
- While I'm confident about the long-term impact of that upgrade - and of the overall evolution of the crypto space - and while I believe August is going to be a great month for ETH, it's key to remind you of next week's FOMC meeting.
- Next Thursday, the 28th, the Fed will hold a press conference detailing its policy updates. I expect the currently priced-in 75bps hike will be announced, but until then I'm positive more macro rumours will hurt the market.
- To clarify, I'm expecting either more sideways trading until Thursday or even some dips, which can be nice buying opportunities provided that the Fed doesn't ruin the party with some unexpected news during the conference.
Lastly, and as you can see in today's chart art, it's clear we're at a make-or-break point. While bears still argue stonks haven't dumped enough, I'm starting to feel that crypto can easily decouple from equities in case that happens!
Chart art: key levels are back.
Three things: 3AC and AH are back.
- Su Zhu and Kyle Davies finally talked to the press about 3AC's downfall.
- Giancarlo Chaux explains why Minecraft's NFT ban is ridiculous.
- Arthur Hayes shared part 2 of his "Great Bear" narrative. Oh, and the man also shared his witty annotations of the 3AC interview.