Do not sell sun in July
3 min read

Do not sell sun in July

Cryptic ball: halfway bear.

Last night, bitcoin reached a low unseen since the June 18th crash, touching $18.6k. But it managed to close the day above $20k, even if it's now trading below that key level. What happened and what can we expect for the weekend?

  • As explained this week, the monthly and quarterly close periods are associated with heightened volatility. So it was relatively normal to see that, yesterday at 11pm UTC, bulls pumped bitcoin 12% in just a couple of hours, to $20.9k.
  • Unfortunately, that move didn't last and was faded almost entirely. 12 hours later, the original cryptoasset was back below $19k and has been mostly trading sideways since - with ether and most alts mimicking this behaviour.
  • In the world of equities, we didn't see as much volatility, and the S&P 500 futures fared relatively better than crypto - staying away from its June lows of 3,600 points. In today's US session, most stonks even closed in the green!
  • However, remember what I said yesterday - the trend remains clearly negative. Michael Burry, of The Big Short fame, even suggests we're "halfway there", regarding a market bottom - both for equities and cryptoassets.
  • But this permabear can't be taken for a guru. I even posit, from his deleted tweets in 2021, that he didn't nail the top and so has an interest in ensuring the fallout is deeper in order to make a decent profit from his short positions!
  • Moreover, the Fed will surely need to reverse course as at least America is now officialy in a recession, with the latest Atlanta Fed estimate indicating a negative quarterly change in the economy of the USA of -2%. That's shocking!

Still, all that is medium-term talk. For now I believe the weekend will be smooth as the market barely reacted to news that Voyager, a crypto lender, suspended activities. Just watch BTC as if it falls below $19k things can get scary again.

Chart art: halfway halfway.

We need to go back to 1970 to find a worse H1 for stonks!

Three things: halfway decentralised.

Tweet tip: halfway rekt.

Well, these centralised players were trying to leverage DeFi. But they were overleveraged! To be fair, Voyager claimed they didn't engage in DeFi lending, but they lent millions to 3AC!

Meme moment: halfway arr.

Sad, very sad.

FV Bank: where to find alpha.

Watch Miles Paschini discussing "Where to Find Alpha" with Caitlin Long, and Stephen Rust.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.