Happy Independence Day!
3 min read

Happy Independence Day!

Cryptic ball: freedom to bear.

As anticipated last Friday, the weekend was indeed quite smooth. There was a very quick dip below $19k Sunday but it was rapidly bought. Perhaps that infused bulls with the confidence to pump crypto this Independence Day! What's next?

  • Overall, we're stuck in this sideways range until we aren't. $20k has become resistance, with two failed attempts to break it over the past hours. In other words, if we don't break it soon we're bound to test $19k again.
  • US equities futures are also trading flat, so it will be key to watch tomorrow's open for directional clues regarding the rest of the week. Note that recession fears are increasing, as manufacturing slumps, but that's not bad! Why?
  • Because an economic recession, which the US is about to officially be in, naturally reduces inflation. This should ease concerns that price increases are out of control. However, recessions hurt profits which hurt stock prices!
  • And what hurts stock prices is still - at least for now - hurting crypto. The bright side, as today's tweet tip shows, is that this is crypto's first crisis caused by an exogenous factor! Once fear fades we may pump faster than before!

Lastly, check out today's chart art. It shows how consumer confidence is faring in the US over the past decades and we're clearly close to a generational bottom. While the axis is truncated, I reckon pessimism can't continue growing much!

Chart art: liberty to change.

Monetary policy will have to change to accommodate this drastic shift in consumer confidence. Crypto is also experiencing peak fear. The market barely felt that another crypto lender, called Vauld, paused withdrawals today!

Three things: ensnared by psychology.

Tweet tip: caged by fear.

So very true.

Meme moment: privileged to meme.

When Oculus?

FV Bank: where to find alpha.

Watch Miles Paschini discussing "Where to Find Alpha" with Caitlin Long, and Stephen Rust.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.