Cryptic ball: freedom to bear.
As anticipated last Friday, the weekend was indeed quite smooth. There was a very quick dip below $19k Sunday but it was rapidly bought. Perhaps that infused bulls with the confidence to pump crypto this Independence Day! What's next?
- Overall, we're stuck in this sideways range until we aren't. $20k has become resistance, with two failed attempts to break it over the past hours. In other words, if we don't break it soon we're bound to test $19k again.
- US equities futures are also trading flat, so it will be key to watch tomorrow's open for directional clues regarding the rest of the week. Note that recession fears are increasing, as manufacturing slumps, but that's not bad! Why?
- Because an economic recession, which the US is about to officially be in, naturally reduces inflation. This should ease concerns that price increases are out of control. However, recessions hurt profits which hurt stock prices!
- And what hurts stock prices is still - at least for now - hurting crypto. The bright side, as today's tweet tip shows, is that this is crypto's first crisis caused by an exogenous factor! Once fear fades we may pump faster than before!
Lastly, check out today's chart art. It shows how consumer confidence is faring in the US over the past decades and we're clearly close to a generational bottom. While the axis is truncated, I reckon pessimism can't continue growing much!
Chart art: liberty to change.
Three things: ensnared by psychology.
- Wassie, an anon lawyer, goes down the 3AC liquidations rabbit hole.
- The DeFi Edge, an anon threader, muses about trading psychology.
- Joel John, a crypto VC, summarised Chainalysis's state of web3 report.