Cryptic ball: Chancellor on brink of.
Happy new year, dear readers! I hope you reflected on how extraordinary 2021 was and wished that 2022 could bring us similar excitement and upside. Because everyone's tired of the current range: after all, bitcoin has been trading between $45k and $49k for the most part of the past 30 days! And such sideways boredom has paralysed the rest of the market, some low-cap gems and jewels aside.
Fortunately, as explained last week, New Year's Eve options expiry turned out to be uneventful and bears failed to break the $45k support. That means the road is clear for fresh funds to be deployed this Q1. While I'm not anticipating any fast pump, I'm optimistic about the year ahead, as bitcoin's range implies heavy accumulation. Even if BTC itself doesn't go wild in 2022, it's very likely we see ETH going to the moon and flipping it at the top of this cycle.
However, as I extensively discussed over the past months, the market is changing due to the Fed's policy shift and we need to adapt. As Gainzy reminds us, traders have been de-risking and that's what creates the current chop. Worse, such chop is where traders who didn't de-risk typically lose money. While this mostly refers to big money, it's also applicable to those overtrading major alts stuck in similar ranges. So look out for easier opportunities where you have a hedge instead of seeing your stop losses get eaten up and down. And remember this game is all about long-term survival. Bitcoin was launched 13 years ago today and it took time to become the global network it is today. Are you able to be that patient?
Chart art: second bailout for banks.
Three things: 2022 will be blue.
- QCP Capital released a great report with their macro and crypto outlook.
- CMS Holdings shared some thoughts of how "this market plays out in 2022".
- If you missed more 2022 prediction threads, Darren Lau compiled them for you (just missing the two great ones above).