What rhymes with Ukraine?
4 min read

What rhymes with Ukraine?

Cryptic ball: ah, the pain!

What a day! To begin, please note that due to family circumstances, this newsletter may not be sent over the next few days, but whenever possible I'll try to provide at least a paragraph update and a good article that no other outlet has shared yet. Back to the markets, you probably have noticed that BTC, ETH and the total market cap have dropped +6.5% over the past day, with stonks also crashing.

What happened? Well, the minutes shared by the Fed were quite good, with some even believing Powell wouldn't push for a 0.5% hike in March - although that seems to be wishful thinking. In any case, the world's most powerful central bank confirmed a more passive approach to the reduction of its balance sheet. In other words, a dump wasn't warranted and, as expected, all markets started a minor pump. However, BTC failed to break $46k at the daily close and formed a double top, one of the scenarios I shared Tuesday. Why did the bulls stall?

Well, to compound the poor technical setup, global markets weren't amused at the war theatre currently being played by Russia and the West. Nato had been warning that there were no signs of de-escalation, despite Putin's announcement, but the tension regarding Ukraine keeps growing (curiously, Ukraine's parliament just approved a law legalising cryptoassets and VASPs!). Traders around the world are flocking to bonds and gold as a result, so I'm not expecting any risk-on pump soon.

What next? Zoom out and use the below chart as guidance. Currently, there's minor support at $40k, but what matters are the bolder levels. Between $30k and $42k it's bear territory and I would only bet on longs close to the $30k support, knowing that there's a small risk it could break - taking us to $20k and a prolonged bear market. Between $42k and $52k things start to get interesting, but only above that level can alts attempt new ATHs. Be safe out there!

Chart art: ah, the playbook!

It's a simple playbook. Remember that no trade is also a trade!

Three things: ah, the lack of sleep!

Tweet tip: ah, the dead cat bounce!

Meme moment: ah, the reality trumping the meme!

It's not only crypto, it's everything that's remotely risky.
Again, it's all about zooming out!
There was a time when one couldn't dream about such a meme. That's all, folks!

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Legal Notice
Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.