War and Peace or Crime and Punishment?
Cryptic ball: more like dead souls.
What a weekend for bears! As written last Thursday, there was minor support at $40k. But after 24h of pressure, that level was doomed to break and bitcoin is now marching towards $36k. Total market cap is also down 8%, although major alts faced up to %12 declines since Friday. European and US equities continue to fall, as Russia builds up its troops around Ukraine, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 approaching January's lowest point. So things are about to get fun.
What does that mean? That we have two scenarios ahead. 1) If that level is breached with confidence, expect bears to launch a full-on attack on all kinds of assets to make sure their wildest fantasies don't come short. 2) Conversely, some are noting that markets tend to bottom as major wars break out, typically at the point of invasion, as you can see in today's chart below. Why? Because that's when fear tends to peak and when markets price in the shocking news.
In other words, and even though Ukraine's situation could develop into a cold war-like impasse, it's interesting to see that markets tend to bounce once the uncertainty around the beginning of conflict resolves, albeit that being unfortunate and irrelevant for the people experiencing the clash. Moreover, this other scenario provides some hopium, so check your bias if you're clinging to it. Lastly, remember there are no major macro events this week, so it will be all about the Kremlin!
Chart art: life and fate.
Three things: notes from the underground.
- Chris Burniske believes we're in a 2018/2019 kind of situation.
- The DeFi Edge shares how poker gives you an unfair advantage in crypto.
- Cobie is back with a new profile pic and a new post: "incentive structures".
- Meltem explains why an NFT rock is "worth more than a mansion".
- Kevin Zhou shares his funny thoughts on the "state of the market".
- Aylo sums up "18 important lessons from The Psychology of Money".