War and Peace or Crime and Punishment?
3 min read

War and Peace or Crime and Punishment?

Cryptic ball: more like dead souls.

What a weekend for bears! As written last Thursday, there was minor support at $40k. But after 24h of pressure, that level was doomed to break and bitcoin is now marching towards $36k. Total market cap is also down 8%, although major alts faced up to %12 declines since Friday. European and US equities continue to fall, as Russia builds up its troops around Ukraine, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 approaching January's lowest point. So things are about to get fun.

What does that mean? That we have two scenarios ahead. 1) If that level is breached with confidence, expect bears to launch a full-on attack on all kinds of assets to make sure their wildest fantasies don't come short. 2) Conversely, some are noting that markets tend to bottom as major wars break out, typically at the point of invasion, as you can see in today's chart below. Why? Because that's when fear tends to peak and when markets price in the shocking news.

In other words, and even though Ukraine's situation could develop into a cold war-like impasse, it's interesting to see that markets tend to bounce once the uncertainty around the beginning of conflict resolves, albeit that being unfortunate and irrelevant for the people experiencing the clash. Moreover, this other scenario provides some hopium, so check your bias if you're clinging to it. Lastly, remember there are no major macro events this week, so it will be all about the Kremlin!

Chart art: life and fate.

Credit to Eugene Ng for curating this chart. But could 2022 resemble 2002? That's a possibility you can't ignore.

Three things: notes from the underground.

Tweet tip: the idiot.

This is a biased view. I talked with dozens of other participants and not all agree. But the fact some feel like this can propel more to sell all their bags now. 

Meme moment: invitation to a beheading.

All are must-reads, both the novels and the six articles! 

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.