Cryptic ball: just another bear.
Another choppy day in the global markets, including crypto. Bitcoin still managed to float above $40k for several hours, but bears stroke again and the orange coin is now approaching the feeble $39k support. What should we do in the weekend?
- As always, do your own research. Nothing teaches trading like making one's own mind based on the information you've collected. In my mind, I see more risks than rewards ahead so I'll be mostly flat, but only you can decide.
- To be fair, crypto weathered this Friday much better than stocks. US indexes lost another 2% over the past 24 hours and are now just 2.5% to 5% away from February's bottom. And all this because Powell went rogue yesterday!
- In other words, the weekend can't possibly be good for crypto as it would be very tough for bulls to make meaningful strides against such a bleak backdrop. Conversely, this pessimism may warrant recovery around the end of the month - especially with potentially solid corporate earnings announced next week.
- Why? That's how the market ebbs and flows. The trend is definitely bearish right now, but it seems market participants are overreacting to expected policy moves, as the market doesn't expect the Fed can control inflation timely.
- But, as our friend Alex Krüger writes, the market has already priced in a 3% interest rate in 2022. The most hawkish FOMC member is pushing for a rise to 3.5%. It would be wild if it was more than that. What does this mean?
- That there's some hope out there. Bulls should keep an eye on inflation as the Fed will likely soften its tone once (hopefully not if) inflation stops making the headlines. That could very well happen this May, but it's still just hope!
Chart art: just another correlation.
Three things: just another brick in the wall.
- Onchain Wizard introduces you to "crypto portfolio management".
- Ariana Fowler made a "web3 salary transparency database".
- Kris Machowski explains order books in a very nice and visual way!