Cryptic ball: the dark side of the bears.
Not much happened on the markets this Friday. Crypto remained muted, with bitcoin hovering around the $36k level. Stocks bled a tad more, especially tech, with the Nasdaq closing "the first five-week losing streak since 2012". What now?
- I would love to say there's so much blood in the streets that it should entice buying. But this doesn't look like a bottom. Instead, I'm expecting the slow bleed to continue until volume picks up or some news changes the trend.
- New US labour market data was also released and hiring remains strong. Traders anticipate such growth in jobs will raise wages which will compound inflation, thus forcing the Fed to continue hitting the brakes on the economy.
- The Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America further believes we're far from the bottom as investors are "just" paralysed and we need some panic before stocks hit their absolute lows. I hope he is clueless but I tend to agree.
- In the meantime, next Wednesday, May 11th, we'll have fresh inflation data. I'm expecting markets to breathe for a while until that CPI update comes through. If inflation is perceived to be slowing down, then bulls will wake up.
Conversely, if we get a bad print then we'll understand the true meaning of fear. It's more likely we get something in between and just continue to drift lower until the backdrop changes. Or until Pink Floyd cashes out and sells its whole catalogue.
Chart art: the division bell.
Three things: comfortably numb.
- XBT002 writes about the bear market we're in.
- Grace Kwan shares how web3 could learn a thing or two from web2.
- Tascha Che explains cross-chain communication protocols.