Cryptic ball: i got my first real rug pull.
The weekend is behind us. As expected, we didn't see panic selling but things did go a bit sour. As today's chart and meme exemplify, losing $38k on Sunday spooked many and crypto fell back to extreme fear territory. What next?
- May is here and this was the month last year where crypto went bonkers, after all the hype in April with Coinbase IPO and bitcoin touching the $65k level. 2022 looks very different, so I'm not sure May is going to be that dramatic.
- Still, since last year that I've warned you about this market's "seasonal affective disorder", an empirical observation of how quiet crypto activity gets over summer in the Western hemisphere - a matter first noted back in 2015.
- While summer doesn't start until June 21st, the sun is already shining in many crypto hubs so don't expect bulls to wake up now. The last hope we have is for things to get so boring that any substantial improvement moves the needle.
- That's what happened during the DeFi summer of 2022, when the first DeFi governance tokens were launched and interest in yield farming and liquidity mining surged - creating the first multimillionaires of this cycle.
- Maybe NFTs will pump again this year, or play-to-earn makes a comeback. I'll keep looking at these and other corners of the cryptoshere over the next weeks and share what I find. But patience is of the essence until the Fed prints again.
Meanwhile, stonks have barely moved today and their action will dictate the bias for the rest of the week. Most likely we have to wait until Wednesday for a relief rally after the Fed confirms a 0.5% interest rate hike, which is already priced in.
Chart art: me and some bears from school.
Three things: had a band and tried really hard.
- Ted Talks Macro covers this Wednesday's FOMC statement by the Fed.
- Hjalmar Peters explains why he is betting against TerraUSD. Also a must!
- Tahin explains how non-coders can learn how to read smart contracts.