Sam FVBankman-Fried
Cryptic ball: today I amazed.
Not much has changed since Wednesday. With the weekend around the corner, it's time to reflect on the possible scenarios ahead. Not sure if you noticed, but Amazon's stock just had the worse intraday crash since 2014. Foreboding?
- AMZN crashed 12% after reporting poor earnings and the first quarterly loss since 2015, dragging down most stock indexes and even crypto.
- Bitcoin "just" fell 3% for now, but it's approaching the lower level of the bear flag I've been talking about, which is a place we don't want to be in.
- Naturally, there's so much liquidity staked in various protocols or institutional funds that it's unlikely we see severe panic selling over the weekend.
- But I'm assigning a not very useful 50% chance that things go sour over the next day. While it's usually good advice to long support, I'm not yet sure there's strong support at this level. And I'm very sure we won't pump hard.
- Yes, we saw APE being pumped and dumped today, but that's exactly the kind of action that screams exit liquidity. So be careful if you're trading alts.
- All-in-all, there's little reward in betting in more upside before May begins, so I would rather wait for such an infamous month in the markets starts to re-analyse the situation. After all, remember the saying "sell in May and go away"!
Chart art: today I funded.
Three things: today I doomed.
- Arthur Hayes explains how bitcoin will reach $1 million.
- Jonathan Wu explains how he seemingly faced a North Korean hacker.
- The DeFi Edge explains Aurora, the most undervalued DeFi ecosystem.
Tweet tip: today I crammed.
Meme moment: today I swept.
FV Bank: today I met.
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