Time to blossom
3 min read

Time to blossom

Cryptic ball: higher lows are good.

The second day of spring is upon us and bitcoin is finally trying to break $42k. Yesterday I mentioned this week's price structure looked like it would favour longs and so far that's working out. But we need more confirmation. Why?

  • On the one hand, BTC hasn't closed a day above this key level since February 28th, shortly before euphoric bulls got trapped after it became clear Russia's invasion of Ukraine wasn't going to be just a special operation. In other words, macro factors still influence cryptoassets - so let's keep following the conflict.
  • On the other hand, bitcoin (and remember crypto follows the corn) is still in a clear downtrend. Zooming out, the first step to break it is to successfully conquer $46k. Even before that, bears are still pushing back, having aggressively sold BTC today on the two occasions it got above $43k. Will the third attempt be equally punished? Let's hope not, but be prepared for it.

All-in-all, it's good that bulls are at least fighting a bit. Even if 2022 gets worse I'm confident it's time to bid winter goodbye, at least for a while - as you can see from today's chart art. Then summer doldrums may come as usual, bringing peace and quiet to the developers building this space! But until then...

Chart art: low interest is good.

This annualised basis represents the cost of trading bitcoin futures, which tend to be higher the more demand there is for them. In other words, such a low annualised basis has only been occurring during the bottoms of this past bull market. While the basis could go lower or remain at this depressed level, this is another good indicator of a bottom.

Three things: expansive universes are good.

Tweet tip: emotions are good.

Bears in disbelief or solid advice? Why not both?

Meme moment: keeping an ear out is good.

Just don't engage with the trolls!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.