The first day of spring
4 min read

The first day of spring

Cryptic ball: will animal spirits wake up?

And we're back! After February 17th's intermission announcement and a very tough last week that drove me away from the keyboard, you can now expect this newsletter to be back to its regular schedule. Without further ado, it's time to talk crypto again, understand what happened and the possible scenarios ahead.

  • On March 11th I wrote that in the absence of further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, one should expect cryptoassets to continue to range - potentially with some small upside in case bitcoin bulls were able to defend $37k. And, as you can see in today's chart, that has been the outcome so far, with bitcoin and the crypto market both rising roughly 10% over the last week.
  • US and European equities had an even more impressive move, with the S&P 500 appreciating nearly 8% in the same time frame, in what was dubbed the best weekly rally in more than a year for the less volatile stonks. Yes, Wednesday the Fed confirmed a 0.25% hike in the reference interest rate, with a 8-1 vote. But I told you that was priced in, so it was time to buy the news.
  • More interestingly, Jerome Powell said the probability of a recession is "not particularly elevated". But, in a news conference today, the Fed's chair is arguing "the inflation is much too high" and this harms economic recovery. In other words, bitcoin needs to prove it can really decouple from traditional assets or else the Fed's policy will still influence the orange coin.
  • What next? The past couple of months saw tight range trading, as you can see in today's visual block. But derivatives traders are now pricing in a rise in volatility for the next weeks, even if implied volatility is still relatively low. Overall, I believe the current trading area favours longs, with further confirmation if $42k becomes support. But I'm still thinking about the current state of affairs and will provide further updates tomorrow!

Chart art: will we finally break free?

Bitcoin bulls defended $37k the Sunday after the last newsletter was sent out. Since then, it has recovered ~10%, but it's still ranging. Will this be the week we break upwards of $42k?

Visual block: will sideways never end?

Three things: will institutions finally buy?

Tweet tip: will the merge finally happen?

Of course it will. And it's a key topic for the next months.

Meme moment: will you stack sats?

Shrimp or whale, what matters is to save.

Bitcoin Miami: meet us there.

Meet the FV Bank and B21 founders Miles and Nitin at BTC Miami to discuss Bitcoin and banking, from April 6th to the 9th, 2022.

Get started: download the B21 Crypto app!

Subscribe to our newsletter
Follow us on Twitter @b21official
Follow us on Twitter
Join our Telegram group
Find us on Instagram
Watch us on Youtube
Legal Notice
Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.