Mutual assured dump
4 min read

Mutual assured dump

Cryptic ball: a new scare.

Hello, folks! The world is getting MADder each passing day, and it seems a perfect storm is brewing, with oil and commodities mooning. That's bad for inflation, and, at least in the short-term, also negative for risk-on assets. What else?

  • Bitcoin's $45k resistance I talked about Wednesday wasn't retested, as bears attacked before bulls could get compose themselves. BTC has been falling since, losing 10% from that top. Total market cap fell by the same amount.
  • Most alts have been following bitcoin down, but look out for those which have been showing relative strength: e.g. NEAR and LUNA haven't fallen since BTC's local top - so these should outperform in case bears calm down in the weekend.
  • Stonks are crashing again. The S&P 500 is about to enter bear territory again and the Nasdaq doesn't look good, with both entering their 4th consecutive red week. US jobs data was very good, but that actually helps the Fed to raise rates.
  • European stocks had the worst week since March 2020 and Asian ones reached a 16-month low. A sign the US stock market is manipulated by the Fed? Or just that the strength of the world's economy isn't as robust as Uncle Sam's?

For the weekend ahead, one must consider the possibility that bitcoin - and therefore most cryptoassets - are in a bearish pennant that could break down if chaos ensues. I don't think that's very likely, but you must be prepared.

Conversely, bitcoin has been falling for three days already, and has just met the confluence of the major moving averages on the 4-hour chart. So I'm more inclined for this to be a rather slow weekend. At least as long $40k is defended!

Visual block: a new wave.

Let's hope the bottom is in. This chart shows the realised cap HODL waves. New coins aren't shown in the chart as these have just been "spent", allowing one to easily see the relative age of coins being hodled measured as a % of the price at the last time each coin moved. We can see bitcoin price tops nicely correlate with bottoms in this maturation process.

Three things: a new diamond.

Tweet tip: a new angle

Most Bitcoin maximalists believe BTC will go to the moon if we reach doomsday. But Dylan argues the bottom isn't in and that bitcoin will crash along with the markets in this recession.

Meme moment: a new NFT.

Unfortunately, Ukraine cancelled their peaceful airdrop. Did the US SEC had a say in it? Perhaps. In any case, the vice-PM has confirmed Ukraine will do NFTs in the near future.

FV Bank: a new paradigm.

One account to rule them all. With FV Bank you have access to payments, checking, and crypto in one account. 

Get started: download the B21 Crypto app!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.