Some bears are secretly bullish
3 min read

Some bears are secretly bullish

Cryptic ball: at least Tether is safe.

As anticipated yesterday, $20k has started to show novel signs of weakness today. Stonks remain muted as Jerome Powell admitted “we now understand better how little we understand about inflation" and repeated there's pain ahead. What's next?

  • The Fed's chairman also said there's the risk the most powerful central bank goes to far in its fight against inflation, i.e. it could crash the markets further. But clarified that the biggest risk would be "failing to restore price stability".
  • In other words, unless inflation calms down - something which is hopefully due to happen soon, as explained last week - or else global markets will continue to suffer, something particularly problematic with bitcoin trading below $20k.
  • Meanwhile, it became known that Roger Ver, a popular early adopter of Bitcoin who infamously caused the Bitcoin civil war, was the person owing CoinFlex, another centralised crypto lender some $47 million - forcing a withdrawal halt.
  • You know I like to stay away from all kinds of personalised drama, but this is important as it comes on top of news that Three Arrows Capital has officially entered liquidation. That should be fine, as it could symbolise capitulation.
  • However, Sam Bankman-Fried was just profiled by Forbes and claimed “there are some third-tier exchanges that are already secretly insolvent". While such bankruptcies are relatively normal, let's hope the contagion ends there!

Meantime, we must keep monitoring BTC. Today it traded below $20k for many hours, but bears didn't take the opportunity - a good, but not great, sign - and it's now trying to climb above $20.3k. Let's see how that goes, but be careful!

Chart art: at least miners will be exhausted soon.

Miners hold large reserves of bitcoin and are spending them at a rate of 3k to 4k bitcoins per month. However, remember that the Bitcoin protocol is currently rewarding miners with roughly 27k bitcoin per month. So this means the total selling pressure amounts to 30k or 31k BTC!

Three things: at least the funding rate works.

Tweet tip: at least some bears are nice.

Tom Loverro was "on the Coinbase board until 2021 and led its Series D for IVP". Great thread, even if I disagree with some of his forecasts as interest rates can stabilise earlier.

Meme moment: at least they supported us for long.

RIP Bogdanoff, you pumped this market for long. Or at least our memes!

FV Bank: where to find alpha.

Watch Miles Paschini discussing "Where to Find Alpha" with Caitlin Long, and Stephen Rust.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.