Cryptic ball: at least Tether is safe.
As anticipated yesterday, $20k has started to show novel signs of weakness today. Stonks remain muted as Jerome Powell admitted “we now understand better how little we understand about inflation" and repeated there's pain ahead. What's next?
- The Fed's chairman also said there's the risk the most powerful central bank goes to far in its fight against inflation, i.e. it could crash the markets further. But clarified that the biggest risk would be "failing to restore price stability".
- In other words, unless inflation calms down - something which is hopefully due to happen soon, as explained last week - or else global markets will continue to suffer, something particularly problematic with bitcoin trading below $20k.
- Meanwhile, it became known that Roger Ver, a popular early adopter of Bitcoin who infamously caused the Bitcoin civil war, was the person owing CoinFlex, another centralised crypto lender some $47 million - forcing a withdrawal halt.
- You know I like to stay away from all kinds of personalised drama, but this is important as it comes on top of news that Three Arrows Capital has officially entered liquidation. That should be fine, as it could symbolise capitulation.
- However, Sam Bankman-Fried was just profiled by Forbes and claimed “there are some third-tier exchanges that are already secretly insolvent". While such bankruptcies are relatively normal, let's hope the contagion ends there!
Meantime, we must keep monitoring BTC. Today it traded below $20k for many hours, but bears didn't take the opportunity - a good, but not great, sign - and it's now trying to climb above $20.3k. Let's see how that goes, but be careful!
Chart art: at least miners will be exhausted soon.
Three things: at least the funding rate works.
- Steven Ehrlich interviewed Sam Bankman-Fried. As always, a must!
- Ben Lilly explains why funding rates are a true source of alpha. Just like I've been saying since last year!
- Chris Dixon shares some "lessons from the 2000s". Again, another must!