The inflation tide lifts all prices
3 min read

The inflation tide lifts all prices

Cryptic ball: is it turning?

Last week was good for bulls, but zooming out it's clear the breakout was rejected, at least in crypto: despite the reasonable pump, bitcoin had no daily candles outside the key range I've highlighted. So, what should we look out for this week?

  • Last Friday, the latest US employment data came out and it seems firms continue to hire more than ever. This shows the economy is strong and baffled many. But it also hints that the job market could be peaking as it often lags.
  • Moreover, this week begins the Q2 corporate earnings season. If companies show poor profits, stocks will likely dump and drag crypto with them. Still, this week's reports shouldn't yet bring anything very gloomy - but let's keep an eye.
  • Lastly, the latest CPI data will be released Wednesday and that's the key event of the week. Many commenters I respect believe inflation will register an even higher increase than the consensus expectation of 8.8% YoY and 1.1% MoM.
  • Volatility will surely increase as we approach that date so let's see which narratives prevail until then. If we indeed get a worse print, then we can expect a big dump. If it gets bought, that's good news. If not, the next leg down begins!

In other words, this will be a tough week for all. But it's clear we're approaching capitulation. After all, even Puru Saxena, the analyst from today's Tweet Tip, who anticipated the current bear market, believes the "tide seems to be turning"!

Chart art: is it going to break out?

Three things: is it going to be better?

Tweet tip: is it going to bounce?

Indeed. If inflation is still bad but nothing dumps that would be good news!

Meme moment: is it going to have steam?


FV Bank: where to find alpha.

Watch Miles Paschini discussing "Where to Find Alpha" with Caitlin Long, and Stephen Rust.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.