All about that bias
3 min read

All about that bias

Cryptic ball: bear flag or flat?

The trading channel I highlighted yesterday is holding so far. But remember such bear flags typically resolve downwards, even if that isn't an inevitability. Stock market indexes are also bouncing, but does that mean we're out of the woods?

  • To put it simply, no. But not all is lost as of now, even if stonks (i.e. equities for the less Millenial of our readers) are indeed approaching peak fear territory.
  • To be fair, that's the kind of situation that prompts traders to change their biases and shift from bear to bull, or vice-versa in peak euphoria moments.
  • But that's just some nice hopium. After all, this relief bounce is likely due to an unexpected contraction in the American economy, with GDP falling this Q1.
  • Naturally, if one recalls the economy was high on pandemic recovery drugs then this was a normal prospect as soon as the Fed started its tightening.
  • But the surprise factor plays well into bulls, who may start to believe the Fed will be more careful as it can't be blamed for a recession, which is formally declared when the economic output declines for two quarters in a row.

What to do in the crypto land, then? Well, I just saw a lame comment on Twitter claiming it's unreal how many bullish news we're seeing yet prices keep on falling.

Well', that's exactly the definition of a bear market. While I don't know how long it will last - and I'm still hopeful for a rally starting around Q3 - for now we must wait for the stock market to find a trend before making our next move.

Chart art: hash-rate ATH is bullish or natural?

Bitcoin's hash rate just hit another all-time high, which means there are more miners securing the network, which can only happen if they believe in the future of bitcoin. We may be in a short-term bear market, but this is definitely a healthy sign. Unless this is miner euphoria! 

Three things: efficient or pretty efficient?

Tweet tip: a few countries or a few worlds?

Bitcoin will become magic interplanetary money.

Meme moment: not sleeping or DYOR?

Just insult other anons on Crypto Twitter and you'll instantly feel tired and sleepy.

FV Bank: meet us at Crypto Bahamas.

Come and meet our founders, Miles Paschini & Nitin Agarwal, at this exclusive gathering of investors & builders in the blockchain, digital assets and web3 space - hosted by FTX and SALT.

Get started: learn more about FV Bank.

Get started: download the B21 Crypto app!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.