Cryptic ball: clear bounce.
Something interesting is happening in crypto today, but it's too early to tell if this is part of the dead cat bounce or not. Bitcoin rose 5% around the start of the US trading session. This was aligned with a minor bounce of a key level on the Nasdaq, but the crypto reflex was much more pronounced. Let's analyse.
- The top 100 Nasdaq stocks bounced ~2% today after approaching bear market territory for the third time this year. If corporate earnings are positive, my thesis that we were going to enjoy a nice spring may still materialise.
- Some analysts are arguing bitcoin on-chain data indicates capitulation at this level. While this isn't farfetched, today's volume on the rebound was not that high, which indicates bears aren't ready to surrender - at least at this level.
- Referring back to the usual chart below, we can see that bulls will only get comfortable if $43k is conquered. Until then, we remain in a downtrend since the end of March and will likely remain in it until some good news come out.
For those looking for some comfort, remember there's the small narrative that the US tax season is harming crypto, as traders have until April 18th to pay what they owe to Uncle Sam. And every year one speculates about how many degens didn't accommodate for that, and so are panic selling close to the deadline. Let's see!
Chart art: clear downtrend.
Visual block: clear parabola.
Three things: clear flaw.
- Forbes tells the cryptic story of Chris Dixon, the "world's top VC".
- Jonah Van Bourg explains why the macro logic of Arthur Hayes is weak.
- Covdul shares his "six ways to find life-changing NFT projects".