Cryptic ball: some caffè latter?
What did I tell you Monday? That bears were fighting to regain control. And yesterday I explained that if $45k was lost, then bitcoin was due to visit the $42k zone. Now, bulls still have one hour to bid and make this a double bottom. Do they have what it takes, though? Or are we going lower? Let's analyse.
- Firstly, this dip comes aligned with the inflation fears I've been talking about. US and EU equities have been red this whole week, as some are now betting the US Fed will hike more aggressively than expected.
- This matter will be confirmed once the Fed releases its March meeting minutes, at 18h UTC - roughly 90 minutes from when this newsletter is sent. If all the market was betting on aggressive hikes, then such news would be fine.
- As only some are expecting them, if the Fed is more negative than anticipated we can count on a continuation of this dump over the next few days, as stock traders adjust their positions and such movement trickles down to crypto.
- Overall, I believe the market is overreacting and the minutes won't be that bad. After all, money markets are already pricing in the highest hikes since 1994.
- If I'm right, that means this pullback could provide a nice opportunity for many to enter the market, and prolong this spring pump until May - at least.
As always, I can be wrong. The current market structure is indeed bearish in the short term, given today's lower low. Bulls can correct this with a daily close above $45k but that's unlikely. In any case, we can bleed for a while even on good news!
Chart art: some suppor tea?
Three things: some piece of cake?
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