It was the latter
3 min read

It was the latter

Cryptic ball: some caffè latter?

What did I tell you Monday? That bears were fighting to regain control. And yesterday I explained that if $45k was lost, then bitcoin was due to visit the $42k zone. Now, bulls still have one hour to bid and make this a double bottom. Do they have what it takes, though? Or are we going lower? Let's analyse.

  • Firstly, this dip comes aligned with the inflation fears I've been talking about. US and EU equities have been red this whole week, as some are now betting the US Fed will hike more aggressively than expected.
  • This matter will be confirmed once the Fed releases its March meeting minutes, at 18h UTC - roughly 90 minutes from when this newsletter is sent. If all the market was betting on aggressive hikes, then such news would be fine.
  • As only some are expecting them, if the Fed is more negative than anticipated we can count on a continuation of this dump over the next few days, as stock traders adjust their positions and such movement trickles down to crypto.
  • Overall, I believe the market is overreacting and the minutes won't be that bad. After all, money markets are already pricing in the highest hikes since 1994.
  • If I'm right, that means this pullback could provide a nice opportunity for many to enter the market, and prolong this spring pump until May - at least.

As always, I can be wrong. The current market structure is indeed bearish in the short term, given today's lower low. Bulls can correct this with a daily close above $45k but that's unlikely. In any case, we can bleed for a while even on good news!

Chart art: some suppor tea?

If we don't bounce after the minutes come out, I'm expecting bitcoin to test the $42k support this weekend. Let's see how the market reacts and trade accordingly.

Three things: some piece of cake?

Tweet tip: some will be sconed away.

Agreed, we'll likely bounce after this.

Meme moment: some bits and bites.

Courtesy of one of our top readers!

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.