Cryptic ball: are you afraid?
Bitcoin continues hovering around $57k. While we saw traders distributing their profits at this level between February and May, meaning it's possible the same is happening now, I still believe we're at an accumulation phase. At least if the support at $51k isn't breached over the coming weeks. Although, ideally, BTC would bounce earlier, to avoid losing the 50-day moving average, currently lying at $53k - which is also aligned with the bottom of the current diagonal channel.
If the above sounds confusing, just check today's chart and you'll see the bigger picture. Remember that, typically, one buys an asset when it is approaching the support level of a trend and vice versa. This implies that traders will lose confidence in the trend if the price falls below support and will go wild if the price rises above resistance. And, overall, I continue bullish because I see no reasons for the trend to fade right now. But note that any piece of bad news may change that.
For example, back in April, we had the IPO of Coinbase, which was aligned with bitcoin's top and was, retrospectively, a sell-the-news event. This was further compounded by the meme coin euphoria in early May that was widely covered here. Some believe Taproot was such an event now, but the scale of the news was different. And, right now, there's more fear than greed in the market, something also common when an asset's price approaches support - just like when BTC was testing $30k during summer and most traders felt like the end was near.
But the end of the month may prove to be volatile, as whales may try to wake up North American traders from the Thanksgiving hangover, maybe even going as far as offering us some Black Friday discounts at the end of this week. I'm not expecting the carnage to be significant, and I'm inclined to agree with Posty's analysis - which seems to indicate we're just repeating this September's pullback. Let's hope that's the case, but let's also be cautious and ready to buy the dip.
Chart art: are you blocked?
Three things: are you playing to earn?
- Everything you need to know about DAOs, from a16z.
- Everything you need to know about EIP-1559, at Unchained.
- Everything you need to know about blockchain gaming, from Mechanism Capital.