Cryptic ball: that counter-trade was worth it.
Hello there! We're back from the long weekend and it's good to see the rest of you were long with us. The boring consolidation of June 22nd's bottom described last Wednesday continued as anticipated, despite more and more traders on Crypto Twitter feeling extremely bearish this Sunday, as renewed FUD hit the markets when BTC was at the key $35k profit taking level, depressing prices back to $30k one last time. But the bounce was strong and the rest of the week looks bullish.
Why? Zooming out to the weekly chart shared below, it's becoming more clear that bitcoin is only now now producing a double bottom, sitting right at the support provided by the 50-weeks moving average. One thing is clear, we can't break lower for more than a brief peek as this would likely undermine the reaction of the remaining bulls. But, so far, the signs are positive and longs can be opened with minimal risk, provided you are patient for a good entry and plan your stops
Chart art: time to pump.
Market musings: let's recover $40k again!
The summer has just started and the end of the month is near. In July we'll have Ethereum's London hard fork, an upgrade to the mother of alts widely explained in this newsletter before. In the past, we forecasted that such moment would be a buy the rumour, sell the news opportunity. But those news are way oversold now, so this is now a bullish narrative that further solidifies the double bottom scenario.
Still, remember the death cross is here and many people are shorting on that basis. Yes, we can have a golden cross (the inverse of the death cross) quite soon if the current support continues to hold. But it would be better to have a short squeeze this Wednesday to ensure a less gloomy monthly candle and excite those in the sidelines who are waiting to enter once the FOMO kicks in. Or, at least, finally get out of the current range so that BTC longs can safely move profits into alts.
Visual block: just a mid-cycle correction.
Three things: "mediocrity is intelligence dedicated to self-preservation".
- Mircea Popescu - a crypto OG and (un)popular Bitcoiner rumoured to be the largest individual whale - reportedly drowned. Learn more about the myth.
- Crypto inflows in India have risen 20x over the past year, with $40 billion invested in 2021. It's that and a16z's new $2.2 billion crypto fund!
- CoinShares published their latest research paper, arguing that Bitcoin "is beginning to fulfil this inflation hedge role" and maturing into a real asset.