Vesting vs. investing
Cryptic ball: it's all about locking up.
Not much has changed since December 4th's dump, but it's worrying to see that for four times bitcoin has failed to print a higher high in the horizontal range it's currently stuck in. That makes me think traders are more concerned with this diagonal line that has clearly halted all bitcoin's advances since the $69k meme top printed on November 10th. This weekend was no different, and apathy ruled most of the crypto market, with BTC trading between $46k and $48k.
Such lack of interest is typical during this season, especially within bearish phases. Again, as explained over the past weeks, I don't think we're entering crypto winter (even miners are bullish, otherwise their hodl reserves wouldn't be near their all-time high). But this month's vibes have been quite similar to this summer's - so one needs to be patient if they want to enjoy the rewards that come with time. However, as Christmas approaches, it's possible a miracle pump takes place.
While I wouldn't put much hope on it, it's interesting to see how bears haven't attacked despite all the tests of $46k going on. This is a probable hint that capitulation is here and that all the selling has been completed. Moreover, there's the expectation many funds stopped trading earlier this month and will resume it early next year. To add to the optimism, it's a great sign that Terra's Luna reached a new all-time high yesterday - it even looks like it will print a new one today!
Why? Because it's incredible how the top Layer-1 projects - which I first highlighted this April in one of our few explicit recommendations - remain strong. While some are implying we're going through the first phases of a supercycle, something I often talk about and also covered in today's Tweet Tip, I think it just shows bulls are waking up - like we saw last July. It could also mean the top will be around Q1/Q2 2022, when all the funds that invested in the seed rounds of these sexy alts are finally able to cash out, as their lock-up periods come to an end!
Chart art: it's all about breaking out.
Three things: it's all about writing down.
- The top will be when Instagram announces NFT support.
- The top will be when "we all stop only seing the dark side of crypto".
- The top will be when Vitalik Buterin stops writing great posts about "non-governmental structures".