Cryptic ball: it's a hot week, indeed.
What a week. Total market cap is down roughly 2% since Monday, given that bitcoin and ether fell a bit as speculative traders swap their crypto savings, typically held in those major assets, into alternative tokens. Yet, dozens of alts continue to pump, with the Solana trend leading the pack - SOL, Solana's token, is up 13% on the day and has achieved a new all-time high.
As explained Monday, we anticipated SOL to drop a bit in order to test its previous ATH, and that was exactly what happened yesterday - to the tick, as you can see in the chart below. Since then, the blockchain du jour has bounced 37%. What next? Overall, even though some believe the weakness shown by BTC and ETH is worrying, we feel things will remain smooth. But, eventually, Solana will lose its (short-term) appeal and everyone's attention will shift to the next shiny thing.
Chart art: it's Solana summer, indeed.
Market musings: it's a doge's life, indeed
It seems doge may be a winner for the next days, as it had also pumped with SOL over the weekend and has just started to bounce today, on top of fresh news the Dogecoin Foundation has been re-established. What's interesting is that Vitalik Buterin and Jard Birchall, former SVP at Morgan Stanley and current manager of Elon Musk's family office, are part of its board of advisors! So keep an eye.
Then, for the rest of the week, take a chance to zoom out and find peace in the fact bitcoin is back again above it's 20-week moving average - a key support level that once broken fuelled the early summer fears. This helps the thesis that the current market cycle is akin to that of 2013-14, where we also had a double bubble. Looking at what happened back then, bitcoin had its second top one month after it broke through all-time highs - so let's see how much fuel does it have this time!
Visual block: it's a double bubble, indeed.
Three things: it's a whole new paradigm, indeed.
- Chris Dixon explains why "blockchains are the new app stores" - a must!
- Sam Trabucco explains why we shouldn't "update decisions based on results".
- Avi Felman explains the relevant differences between "trading v. investing".