A bull is born
3 min read

A bull is born

Cryptic ball: even bears are relaxing.

Right after yesterday's newsletter was sent out, bulls tried to break $20k but failed. A second attempt some six hours later also met resistance, with bitcoin dumping nearly 6%, to $19.3k. Why was this and why are we back above $20k?

  • The move followed US equity futures, which started falling in anticipation of this Tuesday's session. Then, the US market opened in the red but traders soon realised America's technical recession will actually hurt bears.
  • Stocks formed a double bottom from June 29th's lows and the S&P 500 pumped +2% from that level, while the Nasdaq 100 rallied nearly 4% - in what become quite a volatile day for this traditional asset class.
  • All-in-all, and as I've been writing since May, the highly anticipated technical recession of the US economy will force the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by 2023. This should provide extra liquidity to speculators.
  • Moreover, recession fears are finally crushing the price of oil and energy prices, as this commodity typically sees its price falling down to "roughly the marginal cost" in times of economic hardship. That should also help lower inflation.

Maybe the Fed's plan always considered this and the goal was just to crash asset prices as soon as possible to spook businesses and managers, thus creating a technical recession to lower surging energy prices. Or maybe not!

Chart art: even bulls know it can't get worse.

In relative terms, that is. Because even though I'm still relatively bullish about Q4 2022, it's possible the markets get worse and experience true capitulation before we bounce.

Three things: even top builders share their top ideas.

Tweet tip: even those who capitulated know the drill.

Murad experienced a (much) smaller version of 3AC's downfall back in 2018/19, but his reckoning is complete.

Meme moment: even those who lost it know they won.

FV Bank: where to find alpha.

Watch Miles Paschini discussing "Where to Find Alpha" with Caitlin Long, and Stephen Rust.

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.