Cryptic ball: bear that in mind.
This has been a calm, albeit interesting day. The global crypto market cap has stagnated over the past 24 hours, with BTC and ETH holding on for their dear lives. Some privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies, namely XMR and DASH, have appreciated 5% to 15% over the past day, but most top 100 tokens are gravitating around a 0% change in price. Even doge, which has managed to attach itself to the weed-related April 20th (4/20) celebrations in the US, still traded around $0.42 for most of the day - but it has now started to dump a bit.
So, what will happen on the day after? Once the Doge day is over, can we expect memes to continue sustaining this alt season? Or is it time for a pause? Let's look at the two previous bitcoin market cycles to try to inform our perspective. As you can see below, this current cycle is behaving like an average of the previous two. Back in 2017, after the 2016 halving, we experienced a significant retrace around this time in the cycle - which also coincided with summer time in the North.
What does this mean? That it's normal for the price of any exponentially growing asset to take a break after a steep ascent. And that, even if April manages to close as the most bullish monthly continuation of all our cryptic time - or, at least, consolidate instead of dump, it's very likely that we'll collectively suffer from crypto's typical seasonal affective disorder over the next months. This will allow the market to recover some energy for its final phase of euphoria!
Chart art: a bit of a bis.
Market musings: moons are found at the bottom.
Still, despite the comparisons made in today's cryptic ball, note that even in a boring summer market there are plenty of opportunities and new tokens pumping left and right. It's just a matter of researching harder and avoiding blatant scams. Meanwhile, if you're still bullish, look for bitcoin testing its $60k resistance. Only above that level can everyone confidently get back to the previous party. Conversely, a lower low than $50k will further scare traders - maybe even the doge fans - and likely push BTC and most alts towards $42k.
Visual block: hype doesn't equal returns.
Three things: read, but also watch.
- Andre Cronje writes about how bull markets foster scams and poor development and vice versa. Always important to remind.
- Blake West writes about how NFTs have a better use case in digital skins for games instead of in art or collectible. Great read.
- But, if you don't like reading, B21's The Desi Crypto Show explains NFT index funds to you in just 18 minutes! Better than a TED Talk!