40 days and 40 nights
4 min read

40 days and 40 nights

Cryptic ball: not like the film, though.

This fine week for crypto is coming to an end, but is its modest pump also losing steam? After all, bitcoin (and the total cryptoasset market cap) rose by another 10% since Monday (we're up 20% since two weeks ago), but the first test at $45k was clearly rejected. Let's analyse what the end of the month will look like.

  • On the technical front, this week went exactly according to plan. We saw $42k becoming humble support since the first day of spring, after I had told you that bulls would be inspired by such a move - and so they were.
  • Now, technicals would suggest bitcoin will continue moving up, eventually breaking the $45k resistance that is halting the move. But we can't forget the world has gone astray and what matters most (in the short-term) is macro.
  • On the macro front, things look weary. Like the conflict itself, talks between Russia and Ukraine are stalling and many are now worried a cornered Putin may go wild. Europe has just 40 days of diesel fuel in stock. And even if that's just a theoretical number, as it continues to import and refine more from non-Russian sources, such a statistic easily promotes fear.
  • After all, the regular driver or manager isn't going to be as satisfied as the regular trader or bondholder in case the ECB or some other authority comes and says it would do "whatever it takes" to solve the situation, right?
  • Lastly, remember crypto's fundamentals remain good across the board. Bitcoin is very healthy, more regulators are embracing DeFi, and Ethereum's "merge" narrative has many believing in a true change of trend. I definitely believe in it for the long-term, but you know I like to be careful in times like these.

Most likely I'll be nice and hedged going into Sunday so I can enjoy the Oscars night in peace, flipping back bullish if we have a confirmed breakout of $46k! Conversely, the more alts bleed even if BTC remains resilient, the more likely it is the leading coin will feel the pressure - at least during the next few days.

Chart art: and the award goes to.

Bitcoin's recent performance has been led by European events since the conflict started.

Three things: best apetor award.

Tweet tip: short film woo?

It's the truth.

Meme moment: the power of the doge.

It's the truth! #jk

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Our newsletter offers opinions and insights from analysts in the cryptoasset space. It is not intended to be investment advice, and should not be treated as such. You must not rely on its information as an alternative to financial advice from a qualified professional. Without prejudice, we do not undertake or guarantee that its information is correct, complete or non-misleading; or that the use of the guidance in the report will lead to any particular outcome or result.