Cryptic ball: for king and country.
Surprisingly, and despite all the volatility of the past 48 hours, bitcoin is again at the same level as Tuesday's newsletter. Yet, yesterday the orange coin did attempt to break out of $41k, but the pump was short-lived. Let's analyse.
- Right after Tuesday's daily close, bitcoin pumped 7% in just four hours. While global markets had one of their best sessions a while later, this Wednesday, it seems crypto's move was caused by a leak instead. What happened?
- It was known that Biden's administration was issuing an Executive Order proposing a national strategy "Digital Assets". Well, someone published a statement from Janet Yellen before the due time where the US Secretary of the Treasury argued the policy would support crypto innovation and result in "substantial benefits for the nation, consumers, and businesses".
- Speculators speculated about its meaning and corn jumped. But you know what they say about buying rumours and selling news, right? Joking, it took a while for bitcorn to dump after Biden eventually signed the order yesterday.
- Moreover, the industry has welcomed the policy plans as very positive! But you must understand this isn't the kind of news which sustains a pump. So it was only natural for crypto markets to follow the equities carnage this morning, after the European Central Bank turned hawkish earlier than expected.
What next now? Inflation spooked the Frankfurt bankers, but we also got the US CPI print this afternoon - showing the highest YoY increase in prices since 1982! Nothing new, but expect this narrative to remain relevant.
In the meantime, the rest of the volatility will be driven by news on the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Do you have the stomach to trade these swings? If not, better to sell and wait or just buy and hold. I don't think the bottom is in, but it's good to see LUNA hitting new all-time highs oblivious to the armageddon around it!
Chart art: for triangles and ranges.
Three things: for hopium and efficiency.
- Sam Trabucco digs deeper on "why did the market react inefficiently to the Executive Order news" and how you can trade similar events.
- Jeremy Ong explains why he optimistically believes "there are some major tailwinds that will serve as a buoy for crypto and web3".
- Jack Raines muses about "f*ck you money". What a must-read!