Naive jobs
Cryptic ball: apples and oranges.
The weekend is here and, after 7 days in the red, it seems BTC and ETH want to pump it, albeit modestly. But the move has been halted by the stock market, which initially dipped after that strong US jobs report came out. Why and what's next?
- US payrolls were double than expected, showing the American economy is stronger than ever. In this case, good news is bad news as it helps the Fed's case to further hike rates. Naturally, rational traders shorted this fresh data.
- However, and as explained yesterday, bulls are irrational. A strong economy implies a low risk of recession for the optimistic ones, so the dip was promptly bought as such news faded into oblivion. For how long can it last?
- Again, I'm betting on a strong summer ahead until bears return from holidays and try to push the markets lower - at least one more time. Hopefully, that leg down won't be pronounced and traders can find comfort in a newer lower high.
- Curious why I'm so focused on covering US stuff in this newsletter? It's not only the macro angle, but the fact that, as Jarvis Labs puts it, "since July, the bulk of BTC / ETH gains have been generated during NYC market hours"!
- The alpha in that observation lies in the hint that if such regional bullishness continues during the typically boring month of August, then it's less likely we can experience a more generalised sell-off in September. Let's hope it's true!
Meanwhile, I believe the weekend trading session will be smooth. So take some time to read the latest from Arthur Hayes. The boss is bullish as he argues the economy is about to crash and the Fed must prop it up again. Print it!
Chart art: shorts and squeezes.
Three things: merges and verges.
- Arthur explains why he is bullish and why ETH will outperform.
- Krüger explains why we will trade sideways until next Wednesday.
- Vitalik explains "the different types of ZeroKnowledge-EVMs".